Analysis grapples with GOP fallout if Trump 'loses badly'

Even with MSNBC and CNN reporting on the "momentum" of her 2024 presidential campaign and the huge crowd sizes at her rallies, Vice President Kamala Harris is still making a point of describing herself as the election's "underdog." And many Democratic strategists are cautioning that it's still a "close race."

Nonetheless, those polls are at least giving Democrats reason for some optimism as November draws closer.

In his August 13 column, the New York Times' Jamelle Bouie grapples with the question: "If Trump loses, and perhaps especially if he loses badly, what comes next for the Republican Party?"

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Some Never Trump conservatives, including journalist David French, have been arguing that a Harris victory in November would be great for the GOP and the conservative movement — as it would underscore the need to return to a traditional non-MAGA brand of Reagan conservatism.

But Bouie is skeptical that even a sizable Harris victory would turn the GOP against Trump.

"It is rare in American political history for a single figure to dominate a party as thoroughly as Trump does the modern Republican Party without delivering a string of electoral wins or otherwise reshaping the political landscape," Bouie explains. "Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan all defined and redefined their respective parties, but they did so in the context of strong political organizations and movements that could deliver consistent, and sometimes crushing, victories over their opponents. Not so with Trump."

Bouie adds, "One of the defining attributes of his leadership of the Republican Party is the extent to which he has so thoroughly reshaped Republican identity while leading Republican politicians to a string of election defeats across the nation…. So what happens if and when that leader loses yet another national election for his party?"

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The liberal columnist notes that even though Republicans "either lost or underperformed in 2018, 2020 and 2022," that didn't stop them from making Trump their 2024 presidential nominee.

"In 2016, the Republican Party was too weak to stop Trump, and after eight years of his leadership, it is too weak to break the hold he has over most of its voters and many of its elected officials," Bouie writes. "If Trump does lose in November, the Republican Party will still be his, for as long as he wants it to be."

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Jamelle Bouie's full New York Times column is available at this link (subscription required).