Far-right MAGA Republicans may have doomed Trump’s turnout operation

Many political strategists, over the years, have argued that as important as messaging is to a political campaign, the things that matters the most in the end is turnout.

With Election Day 2024 only a day away and countless national and battleground state polls showing a very close race, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump are both trying to fire up their parties. But according to the Washington Monthly's Bill Scher, Harris will have the advantage if the race ultimately comes down to turnout.

"Every national and battleground state poll shows a statistical dead heat, with neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump holding a lead outside the margin of error," Scher explains in an article published on November 4. "Many factors could determine the outcome of a race this close. One of those factors is the relative strength of the competing campaigns' get-out-the-vote (GOTV) operations…. In a contest where one or more states may be decided by less than a percentage point, the rational strategic decision is to invest money and talent in an effective turnout operation."

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Scher adds, "All available evidence indicates that Harris did that and Trump did not."

On June 20, the Washington Monthly published an article by Scher headlined, "Donald Trump's Get-Out-The-Vote Plan is Bonkers." Scher detailed the GOP's get-out-the-vote efforts, which were greatly influenced by far-right Turning Point USA and its leader Charlie Kirk.

"The plan was premised on eschewing swing voters in densely populated suburbs and cities in favor of chasing ultra-conservative 'MAGA' types who mainly live in rural areas and don't reliably vote," Scher explains. "Then-Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel gave Turning Point the cold shoulder, and some Republicans warned the plan smelled like a grift. Turning Point's Charlie Kirk fought back and publicly pressed Trump to shiv McDaniel. Trump obliged, and McDaniel quit under pressure in February 2024."

Kirk's get-out-the-vote plan, Scher emphasizes, has not served Trump well.

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"Doing things the old-fashioned RNC way — with door-knocking efficiently concentrated in more densely populated areas where more swing voters live — meant behaving like a responsible adult," Scher argues. "Following Kirk's strategy of digging up stray MAGA voters in far-flung places allowed Trump to indulge in his darkest impulses."

Scher adds, "We can't say yet who will win. But, almost surely, if Trump wins, it will be despite his GOTV team, not because of it."

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